Investing Amid Uncertainty

Investing Amid Uncertainty

Many investors express discomfort when things are uncertain. This is especially true when experiencing “heightened uncertainty,” such as with the current Eastern European conflict.

However, uncertainty is not just a fact of economic and investment markets, it is a fact of life. Our future, by definition, is uncertain. There are times when the future is perceived as less uncertain (the sun will rise tomorrow), but there are seldom, if ever, guarantees of future outcomes.

In other words, life happens in probabilities. Learning to consider probabilities into our decision-making process will help us become more comfortable living with uncertainty.

The Probability Problem

Perhaps the greatest challenge to thinking in probabilities is that it is just not natural. While our brains are filled with gray matter, they hate gray areas. They want to think in terms of certainty and will often convert a probabilistic scenario to either “will happen” or “will not happen.” An 85% chance of rain? The brain defaults to, “it’s certain to rain.”

When it comes to investing, we often hear terms such as “risk on” and “risk off” as if investing is just a switch. Many investors similarly think in terms of “all in” or “all out.” This type of binary decision-making is natural, easy, and reinforced by the media. But it may lead to costly investment decisions.

Investing Probabilistically

Investing probabilistically is about making adjustments to your allocation, rather than making a significant move that amounts to a bet on which way the market will go. When the risk/reward balance is perceived as unfavorable, perhaps a small shift to safer assets is in order. And vice versa when the risk/reward balance is more favorable.

Because we can’t divine the future, the correctness of an investment decision should be based on strategy and probability, not the final outcome.

A good practice is stop guessing what the market will do in the future. It can’t be known.

What We Do Instead

Instead, we craft and create cash flow plans. We build long-term financial trajectories. We thoughtfully diversify your investment accounts to track with a Risk Score that you can understand. (And if you are reading this and not a Ten Talents Client, you should learn your own Risk Number using this link to discover your Risk Number).

Ultimately, while you can’t remove uncertainty from your life, financially or otherwise, you can choose to pursue thoughts and decisions that are wise and grounded. My role as your thinking partner is to help you pursue that wisdom and grounding, regardless of the storms we face together.

– Kaleb Paddock, CFP®

Learn More

You can learn more about Ten Talents and Kaleb Paddock, a financial advisor based in Parker, Colorado, by clicking here.

Kaleb can be reached at (720) 710-0939 or

You can check out the Ten Talents YouTube channel by clicking here.

About Kaleb and Ten Talents

Hi, I’m Kaleb. I’m the Founder of Ten Talents. I’m blessed to be regularly featured in CNBC, MONEY, and Business Insider personal finance articles. I’m a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) Professional based in Parker, Colorado and I’m a fiduciary and fee-only advisor.

Put simply, this means that I don’t sell you financial products, I act in your best interest at all times, and my pricing is clear and easy to understand.

My Client are Eyeing Retirement Decisions

My clients are eyeing retirement decisions, often work at technology companies, or have experienced a sudden money event (inheritance, home sale, business sale, stock IPO, gift).

I love bringing confidence and clarity to your financial situation and I’m passionate about helping you take control of your financial future.

Links and Contact Information

You can learn more about me and Ten Talents by visiting my website:

Reach me by call or text at (720) 710-0939 or

You can check out the Ten Talents YouTube channel by clicking here.

(c) 2022 The Behavioral Finance Network. Used with permission.

Leave a Comment