Blog Series
The Eventual Recession
The Eventual Recession Since early last year economists, market experts, and even corporate CEOs were predicting a recession for this year. Most of them said it would happen early in the year.1 A recession was the consensus view among experts, almost a foregone conclusion. With inflation surging to 9% last summer and the Fed aggressively…
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Danger: Headlines Ahead
Danger: Headlines Ahead Mark Twain said, “Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.” It might be more applicable today if he said, “Never let the truth get in the way of a good headline.” Headline Characteristics The purpose of headlines is just to get you to click or tune in.…
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Acting Like an Investor
Acting Like an Investor Many investors today unknowingly act like speculators. How do I know this? Because they are more concerned and influenced by short-term stochastic changes in stock prices than in the underlying fundamentals of a company. And when coupled with a barrage of negative news stories, it can be very difficult to act…
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When Less Can Give You More
When Less Can Give You More We are generally in the pursuit of more. More income, more recognition, more opportunities, more happiness etc.… Because “more” often results in desirable outcomes, it is natural to think in terms of what we can get or do more of, rather than what we can do less of. But…
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What Game Are You Playing?
What Game Are You Playing? How do you think you would do playing tennis and using a golf club, instead of a racket? Or driving down the basketball court wearing hockey skates? Using the wrong equipment for the game we are playing will negatively affect our performance. The same thing can be said for investing.…
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Resolutions and Habits
Resolutions and Habits As New Year’s Day is now in the rear-view mirror, we can surmise that people are struggling to keep their resolutions. Indeed some may have already given up, perhaps with a determination that next year will be the year. A long-term study by the University of Scranton found that less than 10%…
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Tis the Season of Forecasts
Tis the Season of Forecasts It’s that time of year. No, not the holidays. It’s the time that every analyst, economist, and strategist will declare their forecasts for 2023. These forecasts come from well-educated, intelligent individuals – with many years of experience. Some of the forecasts will be made with much confidence. No matter. You…
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Cash: Benefits & Dangers
Cash: Benefits & Dangers When stocks and bonds experience negative performance, as they have this year, many investors become interested in cash. Indeed, some will repeat the mantra, “cash is king.” This has certainly been the case this year as nominal yields have been increasing to levels we haven’t seen in years. But, as with…
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A Photo From July, 2020
A Photo From July, 2020 This is a photo from July, 2020 when my family and I were in the Denver Airport heading out on a flight. This is the security line. This Too Shall Pass I took a picture because I could “picture” (through prospective hindsight) that this would be an incredible moment that…
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Everything is Transitory
Everything is Transitory Last year we were told that inflation was transitory. This year we learn that it is more persistent. And now investors have entered a bear market. Investors may be wondering how transitory or persistent this bear market may be. I wish we knew, but those kinds of things are only known after…
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