Tis the Season of Forecasts

Tis the Season of Forecasts It’s that time of year. No, not the holidays. It’s the time that every analyst, economist, and strategist will declare their forecasts for 2023. These forecasts come from well-educated, intelligent individuals – with many years of experience. Some of the forecasts will be made with much confidence. No matter. You…

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Cash: Benefits & Dangers

Cash: Benefits & Dangers When stocks and bonds experience negative performance, as they have this year, many investors become interested in cash. Indeed, some will repeat the mantra, “cash is king.” This has certainly been the case this year as nominal yields have been increasing to levels we haven’t seen in years. But, as with…

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DIA July 2020

A Photo From July, 2020

A Photo From July, 2020 This is a photo from July, 2020 when my family and I were in the Denver Airport heading out on a flight. This is the security line. This Too Shall Pass I took a picture because I could “picture” (through prospective hindsight) that this would be an incredible moment that…

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Everything is Transitory

Everything is Transitory Last year we were told that inflation was transitory. This year we learn that it is more persistent. And now investors have entered a bear market. Investors may be wondering how transitory or persistent this bear market may be. I wish we knew, but those kinds of things are only known after…

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The Virtue of Strategic Ignorance

The Virtue of Strategic Ignorance Strategic ignorance is a positive quality. It is choosing to ignore information that is detrimental to our well-being, and this sometimes includes market information For example, let’s say at the end of September 2021 you hibernated, or put your head in the sand. You chose to not pay attention to…

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Chasing Returns

Chasing Returns A favorite (and costly) pastime of investors is to invest in assets that have recently done well. This happens in good times as investors seek better returns, and they happen in bad times as low-yielding investments such as cash are more attractive than money-losing stocks. In other words, investors chase returns. It Feels…

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The Upside of Bear Markets

The Upside of Bear Markets Bear markets, like large grizzly bears, are often associated with fear and running for safety. These feelings are often exacerbated by fateful headlines with dramatic wording. But for long-term investors, bear markets don’t have to be scary. They can have several benefits. Benefits of Bear Markets First, they produce negative…

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If Money Doesn’t Buy Happiness, What Does?

If Money Doesn’t Buy Happiness, What Does? For centuries mankind has been searching for happiness. Regardless of culture, social status, or beliefs it seems that we are all connected by our desire to be happy. What makes someone happy and how much happiness we feel may be subjective. But there are a few fundamental principles that…

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Attention Allocation

Attention Allocation You may be familiar with the term “asset allocation”, which is how we divide up our assets (stocks, bonds, cash etc.). Attention allocation is how we divide up our attention. Paradox of Abundance The paradox of abundance states that there is a tradeoff between quantity and quality. The greater the quantity of a…

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Trusting Your Investment Decisions

Trusting Your Investment Decisions Sometimes investing is easy, sometimes it is more difficult. The last decade, except for a handful of temporary declines, has been relatively easy. It consisted of very low interest rates, low inflation, and lots of fiscal and monetary stimulus. And stock markets were quite positive. Since 2009, the S&P 500 annualized…

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